CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2026-07-30T16:53:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Jul 31 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels. Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax/alpha)
produced a long-duration M1.9/Sf (R1-Minor) flare at 30/1700 UTC.
Coinciding with the flare was an approximately eight-degree-long
filament eruption, centered near N20W67. Additionally, two Type II radio
sweeps were observed: the first at 30/1627 UTC (est.853 km/s), and the
second at 30/1645 UTC (est. 1,681 km/s). Other radio events included a
Type IV sweep at 30/1631 UTC, and a 17-minute-long Tenflare (190 sfu)
that peaked at 30/1643 UTC.

A partial-halo CME was observed in GOES CCOR2 coronagraph imagery,
beginning at 30/1715 UTC, as well as a full-halo signature in STEREO
COR2 coronagraph imagery at 30/1653 UTC. Results from WSA-Enlil runs
suggested possible arrival at Earth early on 02 Aug.

Regions 4500 (N18E35, Dao/beta), 4498 (N14E29, Dai/beta0gamma), 4499
(N05W02, Dao/beta-gamma-delta), and 4496 (N05W31, Cao/beta) all
exhibited growth over the past 24 hours. Only minor changes were
observed in the remaining numbered active regions on the visible disk.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 31 Jul - 02 August.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) storm levels at
30/1845 UTC, peaked at 18 pfu at 30/2055 and fell below S1 after 30/0715
UTC. Additionally, the greater than 100 MeV proton flux briefly exceeded
1 pfu at 30/1825 UTC. All proton flux enhancements were likely
associated with the M1.9/Sf flare from Region 4492 mentioned above.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to remain at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days. There remains a chance for the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 levels over 31 Jul and 01
Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field
strength was below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between ~300-330
km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.

.Forecast...
There is a diminishing chance for a disturbed solar wind environment on
31 July as the CMEs from 26 and 27 July may yet graze the Earth. An
additional disturbance is possible on 01 August with the arrival of an
additional CME that left the Sun late on 27 July combined with weak CH
HSS influence. A more pronounced enhancement in solar wind parameters is
likely early on 02 Aug as the CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul passes by
Earth.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active
periods, are still possible on 31 Jul, persisting through 01 August due
to weak positive polarity CH HSS influences and a combination of either
glancing or relatively weak CME effects from events that left the Sun
over the course of 26 and 27 July. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels
are likely on 02 Aug due to the arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30
Jul.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2026 Jul 31 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2026 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2026

             Jul 31       Aug 01       Aug 02
00-03UT       1.33         3.00         1.33     
03-06UT       1.00         2.33         4.00     
06-09UT       1.33         2.00         5.67 (G2)
09-12UT       1.67         1.33         4.33     
12-15UT       1.67         4.00         5.00 (G1)
15-18UT       2.33         3.67         3.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         2.00     
21-00UT       3.67         2.67         3.00     

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 02
Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 30 Jul.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2026

              Jul 31  Aug 01  Aug 02
S1 or greater   40%      5%      5%

Rationale: There remains a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms over 31 Jul.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 30 2026 1700 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2026

              Jul 31        Aug 01        Aug 02
R1-R2           30%           30%           30%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A chance exists for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 31 Jul - 02 Aug due to eruptive potential of multiple regions on
the Sun's visible disk.

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